By 2071, nearly half of the 204 fresh water basins in the United States may not be able to meet the monthly water demand. These model projections, recently published in the journal Earth’s Future, are just one preliminary component of the upcoming Resources Planning Act (RPA) Assessment expected to be published next year. In 1974, congress required that this assessment of US renewable resources be published every 10 years.

Conducted by the U.S. Forest Service, the research describes two causes for the projected shortages. The first is that the U.S. will simply have more people. Despite that the average American is using less water, population growth is still expected to increase water demand across most of the country.

Second, the water supply itself is expected to decrease. Projected climate change affects both rain patterns and temperatures. While rainfall is expected to increase in some parts of the US, the southern Great Plains and parts of the South won’t be so lucky. The water basins rely on rainfall to feed the rivers and tributaries that flow into them. Separately, more water will evaporate from reservoirs and streams as the climate gets warmer, further chipping away at the water supply. Around 50 years from now, many U.S. regions may see water supplies reduced by a third of their current size, while demand continues to increase.

The water shortages may especially impact U.S. agriculture. Irrigated agriculture often accounts for around 75% of the annual consumption of water from these basins. The authors point out, though, that this also makes agriculture a clear area for reducing water use. Up to 96 fresh water basins are projected to face shortages. Reducing water use for irrigation by just 2% could prevent shortages in a third of these basins. For others, though, the reduction must be greater – often over 30%. The authors say it’s unlikely that agriculture will be the only facet of society to adapt. Still, the agricultural sector “is likely to face serious challenges.” Accordingly, the findings raise concerns about both future water security and food security in the U.S.

Managing Correspondent: Jordan Wilkerson

Original Report: Adaptation to Future Water Shortages in the United States Caused by Population Growth and Climate Change. Earth’s Future

Other Media Coverage: Fortune

Related SITN Article: Thirsty Plants: Can plants be genetically modified to need less water?

Image Credit: Pixabay

22 thoughts on “Future Widespread Water Shortage Likely in U.S.

  1. I have a simple cheap idea that uses simple physics …

    But it is all about stupid power and politics, and nobody wants to deal with it …

  2. Maybe people here in the United States should consider the future of their children before they decide to have any. If we don’t control population growth now, mother nature will do it for us. Stop f***ing or use birth control.

    1. 1994- 30 years ago, USA CANADA MEXICO were presented with PROJECT CHANNEL 49, an agricultural irrigation transportation recreational waterway proposal that would eliminate drought and flooding west of the Mississippi and replenish every western North American aquifer to 1905 levels.
      Proposed by a ROYAL CANADIAN ARMY lance Corporal from 119 engineers.
      USDA has been sitting on this cure for 30 years.
      Ever USA administration since Jimmy Carter has received a copy.
      Ever Canadian administration since Jean Chrétien has received a copy.
      But no newspaper, no university, no state legislator, no state representative, no senator has published or supported or projected it ARIZONA LD 25 Matt Salmon 2004.

  3. Please consider adding the link to my recently published paper entitled, “Water, Trump, and Israel’s National Security” to your web site. Here is the link .

    EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Access to potable water is critical for Israel’s future, yet the country depends more and more on its desalination plants, aquifers, and water from outside its borders. Pollution and other factors may jeopardize water supplies as Israel extracts oil and natural gas on and off its coast. American oil and natural gas firms, with the assistance of the Trump administration, may pressure the Israeli government to allow the extraction of these resources in exchange for additional assistance. Jerusalem must put access to potable water at the forefront of its national security goals.


    Dr. Donald D.A. Schaefer

  4. Hi Jordan,
    What will be impact of Covid-19 on water scarcity as industrial use of water has become limited in last 2 months. Can you please shed some light on that. Thank you

  5. So why are we continuing to allow a tsunami of immigrants to flood into the country? This will clearly exacerbate the problem. Oh I know why. It’s because the immigrants are non-white and stopping them from depleting our water supply is of course “racist” as all non-whites anywhere in the world are entitled to America’s resources.

    1. Most water scarcity problems in Mexico come from US agriculture industries relying on the water in Mexico. For example, the avocado industry that feeds the United State’s avocado craze. Avocado AG is mostly in Mexico and the water they use to irrigate them is the water that supplies communities around the area. These communities are left with water scarcity and they must wait a week to get their delivery of water. So some of these people have to leave to places where there is water.

    2. I. The water shortage likely will be widespread, not confined to the United States: People will require water wherever they live.
      II. Wars are likely to be fought over water.
      III. Much of the western states’ water comes from Canada.
      IV. Immigration is already suppressed, with the USA spending $-billions to try to prevent illegal entry. We are already imprisoning refugees and separating children from families, placing them in holding cells and various kinds of containment centers. Both Democrat and Republican administrations have tried to stem the flow of illegal immigrants.
      V. Some immigrants are desired by your government, which is why you may have noticed an influx of doctors, nurses, scientists, and technology experts from foreign nations: India, the Mideast, China, Japan, Korea, and other places are sources for highly skilled workers that we do not seem to be able to produce from within our own nation, for whatever reason. Yes, foreigner doctors drink water, but they also save lives; perhaps the life they save will be your own.
      VI. It is a myth that the USA encourages unlimited foreign entry. Nothing could be further from the truth. When people are desperate, they will go to great lengths and take risks in order to escape death from wars, starvation, famine, floods, and desertification. The simplistic notion that this can be stopped by whatever violent means you can imagine is poorly thought out.

    3. Im sure if someone from the United kingdom, Germany, Ireland, or Australia were to come over you would be fine with it… And hate to break it to you, unless you are Native American you are also a product of immigration 🙂

        1. They were the first people from around 13,000 years ago. This makes them indigenous, native and the first people of the first nation.
          Native Americans are the most water deprived as well as in all the Americas.
          This trend well reach all inhabitants in every area of the planet so this is a mute point.

    4. When you wrote that two years ago I bet you had no idea what was coming. January 2022 through February 2022, almost 2,000,000 immigrants. No Covid test, no nothing. They get everything for free. This should be illegal. Plus if the baby is born in the United States, it’s automatically a citizen, therefore, the family is entitled to a plethora of benefits.This needs to stop. We are the only country in the world that does this. We can’t even take care of the homeless and our own veterans. We don’t need any more Illegal aliens.More drain on our resources.

    5. I have read your comment. And, all I know about your status on the immigration situation…. IS SO TRUE. Now, they can have as many babies as they want to. As an Native American, I can see that you lives are going to be shorter. Save up on your water, wile we can. Don’t let them waste what we have the first right to have and need.

  6. Try electrolysis to make 02 and H, an oxygen pump for the planet ocean side, with h energy for all, the h will power further elecktrolysis, which will pump (Union pipeline) from the Atlantic to all of the US soft water to every home. Every home will have a small distiller at the sink for drnking water (save on disinfectant) and if the water is too soft they will buy a water de-softener. The h engine will power therml or membrne desal. No more chity water, no more recycling toilet deoderant and mop water

    1. It’s much worse than this. Look into it further. Tuscon is actually using sewage water and farmers are using more not less. If they don’t starvation will start

    2. Considering that the hamburger you might choose for your lunch tomorrow will require 2100 litres of water compared to a veggie burger (like the Beyond Meat burger) only uses 160 litres of water, right there is a place for everyone to start.

      Meat and dairy are the most water intensive ways to get your food. Make changes there and you’re heading in the right direction if you’re really concerned.

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